Day: November 9, 2018

Election Impact on Congressional Committees

~ Tess Hembree ~ Leave a comment

The analysis below is simply a prediction of who is likely to serve as leadership on the committees based on the current information available. Frequently after a large number of losses or retirements, members of Congress shift between committees and chair/ranking member positions, changing the seniority structure of committees as a result. One Senator choosing to take an unexpected chair position can have ripple effects across several committees that are difficult to predict. This is particularly true at the subcommittee level. Additionally, Republicans have established a six-year term limit for committee chairs and ranking members, which causes more committee changes than Democrats who don’t have a term limit.

Finally, one of the biggest impacts on committee change is a flip of party control or a dramatic change in majority size. The committee structure is based on majority party and size, and when for example Senate Republicans increase their majority overall in the Senate, their control of committee seats also increases. Depending on how the remaining three Senate races are called, it could force lower-seniority Democrats off committees.

Appropriations

The House Appropriations Committee will see some turnover in the 116th Congress; while all Democrats won his/her races, four Republican members either lost or are retiring, in addition to Rep. Evan Jenkins (R-W.V.) who retired earlier this year.

The Transportation, Housing and Urban Development (THUD) Subcommittee will look very different next year. Included in the Republican losses/retirements are two members of the Transportation, Housing and Urban Development Subcommittee, Rep. John Culberson (R-Texas) and Rep. David Young (R-Iowa). Also retiring is full committee Chair Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-N.J.). There may be some consistency in the THUD leadership, as current Chair Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) will have the option of remaining chair if he chooses.

Democratic leadership on the committee is expected to remain fairly stable. Current Ranking Member Nita Lowey has stated that she will take over the gavel in January and has already started pushing Republicans to make a budget deal for FY 2020. THUD Ranking Member David Price (D-N.C.) also has the option of taking over as chair of the subcommittee.

The Senate Appropriations Committee will have far less turnover in the 116th Congress and leadership will likely remain the same. Only a single member of the committee is at risk of losing her seat; Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith was forced into a run-off election that will take place on November 27.

Full Committee Chair Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) will remain in the top position on the committee, which he took over in April after the retirement of former chair Thad Cochran (R-Miss.). Senator Patrick Leahy (D-Vt.) has the option of remaining ranking member, though as a high-ranking Democrat he may have other committee options. Leadership of the THUD Subcommittee is likely to continue with current Chair Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Ranking Member Jack Reed (D-R.I.).

Authorizing Committees

As a result of a high number of losses and retirements, the House Financial Services Committee will be a significantly different committee in the next Congress. Eight Republicans either lost their re-election bid or are retiring and four additional races are too close to call. Four Democrats are retiring.

Current Ranking Member Maxine Waters (D-Cali.) will take over as chair in January. Current Chair Jeb Hensarling (R-Texas) is retiring and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.) has declared his intention to take over as ranking member. Leadership of the Housing and Insurance Subcommittee is likely to remain the same, with current Ranking Member Emanuel Cleaver (D-Mo.) expected to take the chair position and current Chair Sean Duffy (R-Wisc.) likely to be ranking member. The composition of the subcommittee will be extremely different, though, as six Republican members and two Democrats will not return to Congress.

Unlike the big changes coming to Financial Services, the membership of the Senate Banking Committee is likely to remain consistent. Only two Republicans and two Democrats lost their re-election or are retiring. Leadership could see some changes, though. Depending on the committees that other members choose to chair, current Chair Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) could move to head another committee. There are several scenarios that could result in either Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) or Sen. Patrick Toomey (R-Penn.) taking over the committee. Current Ranking Member Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) is expected to remain in his position.

Tax Writing Committees

The Senate Finance Committee is set for a change in leadership thanks to the retirement of current Chair Orrin Hatch (R-Utah). It’s unclear at this point who will take over, though Sen. Grassley does have the option of taking the Chairmanship if he is willing to give up his current role as the Chair of the Judiciary Committee. If he elects to remain at Judiciary, current Banking Committee Chair Mike Crapo would be next in line for the position. Current Ranking Member Ron Wyden (D-Oregon) will probably remain in place, though if he does take a position on another committee, Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-Mich.) and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.) would be next in line. I

The House Ways and Means Committee will be lead by current Ranking Member Richard Neal (D-Mass.) and current Chair Kevin Brady will probably take over as Ranking Member, though he will need to request a waiver from leadership.

Election Brings Changes to Housing, Community Development

~ Tess Hembree ~ Leave a comment

As widely predicted, the Democrats took control of the House and the Senate will remain in Republican control. Between the shift in control of the House and a large number of retirements and losses, big changes are coming in the 116th Congress for housing and community development.

Right now, Democrats control 225 seats in the House and Republicans have 197 seats. Thirteen races are still too close to call. This is a net gain of 30 seats for the Democrats and gives them a relatively slim majority of 7 seats. In the Senate, Republicans have picked up two seats so far, giving them a 51 seat majority. Democrats managed to hold 46 seats. However, two races are still too close to call and one seat will go to a run-off election later this month.

The big question is how this new dynamic in Congress will play out within Washington, both between the Congressional chambers and with the White House. Will the Senate Republicans and the House Democrats be able to find enough common ground to pass legislation and spending bills? What role will the President choose to play and will his relationship with (presumptive) House Speaker Nancy Pelosi more closely mirror the deals they were able to forge throughout the past two years or will he revert to his recent campaign rhetoric?

These new dynamics will be tested soon during the lame duck session of Congress, which begins next week when all members of the current Congress return to Washington to finalize unfinished business. Newly-empowered Democrats will begin to assert muscle as Congress attempts to deal with a significant amount of legislative work, including a continuing resolution that expires on December 7, the Violence Against Women Act, the Farm bill, flood insurance, disaster relief, tax credits, and other must-pass legislation.

As detailed in a separate blog post, the impact on housing and community development could be significant, particularly in the House Financial Services Committee and the House Appropriations Transportation, Housing and Urban Development (THUD) Subcommittee.

Democrats taking control of the House means they will also take control of the committees, putting Rep. Maxine Waters (D-Cali.) in charge of the Financial Services Committee and Rep. Nita Lowey (D-N.Y.) in charge of Appropriations.

Though neither has publicized an outline of their priorities for their respective committees, it can be expected that Rep. Waters will focus a significant amount of committee time on housing and HUD. Whereas the Republican-controlled Congress approved legislation like the Housing Opportunity Through Modernization Act (HOTMA) that provided program reform and regulatory relief, a Democratic-controlled House is likely to focus more on topics like the impact of budget cuts on programs, oversight, and subsidized housing resident impacts. There are benefits to both approaches and both required a bipartisan effort to pass the Senate.

Congresswoman Lowey this week insisted that Democrats would not cave on the President’s demand that FY 2019 spending include funding for a border wall and that she intends to negotiate aggressively for a FY 2020 budget deal to avoid $126 billion in automatic cuts that will otherwise be required because of the Budget Control Act of 2011. Her leadership will be tested early in the lame duck session as Democrats will look to her to lead the negotiations to finalize FY 2019 spending. As difficult of a feat as that may prove to be, her leadership will further be tested early in the year as FY 2020 negotiations begin and the extension of the debt ceiling expires in March, which will require Congress to act before the summer.